Tuesday, November 22, 2005

thanksgiving day peak

Geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes has predicted this November 24 2005, this thanksgiving day of all days, as the day on which global oil production will peak. He puts his prediction this way…

Although it is a bit silly, we can now pick a day to celebrate passing the top of the mathematically smooth Hubbert curve: Nov 24, 2005. It falls right smack dab on top of Thanksgiving Day 2005.

By silly Mr. Deffeyes means that choosing an individual day on which to mark the pinnacle of global oil production is a bit like choosing the day on which you became interested in baseball or the day on which day you decided your favorite colour was red. These specifics were developed over time. They involved a process too complicated to which to assign an anniversary date. They were only fully recognized in retrospect. Peak oil will occur in much the same manner. Even if the peak does technically occur this Thursday, no one will notice. Only time will tell. However, in honor of Mr. Deffeyes’s willingness to commit to a specific prediction I bring you the following peaks to consider over the holiday weekend.

Non-OPEC Peak?


...in 2005 non-OPEC countries only just brought enough new oil onstream to compensate for declining output from mature fields.

This means were going to have to expect OPEC to make up for oil shortfalls starting about now. Matt Simmons, oil economist and former energy adviser to the Bush II administration has a new book out called Twilight in the Desert. In it he argues that Saudi Arabia has substantially less oil than it would have the world believe. How'd you like to bet that other OPEC countries have been misleading us as well? Then again, I’m not sure our own government would tell us if it knew. Look what happened when Jimmy Carter tried to speak sense. If Non-OPEC has peaked you can exspect continued troubles in the Middle East.

American Oil Companies Peak?


The above shows many of the major American oil companies declining in production over the past three quarters. Have you ever wondered why the Oil and Gas companies haven’t built a refinery in 30 years. Why they are contracting in face of ever-increasing demand? Why they are consolidating? Why other oil companies from around the world are trying to acquire oil reserves from wherever possible? Ever get the feeling they know something you’re just finding out?

The World’s Second Largest Oil Field Peaks?


Earlier this month Kuwait reported the Burgan Field is in decline. But wait, didn't we just decide we will badly need Middle Eastern oil to help out with the previously discussed shortfalls?

Light Sweet Crude Peak?


In the arena of oil production light, sweet crude is the low hanging fruit from which most gasoline is refined. If we have peaked you can expect prices at the pump to rise indefinitely.

We have much to be thankful for. Here’s a Thanksgiving Day toast- that we might work together to respond to the global peak in oil production so that we may have many Happy Thanksgivings to celebrate in the future. Enjoi your turkey.

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