This post is for the benefit of those readers whose friends or relatives just spat out their coffee over their morning New York Times in surprise that oil is starting to run out and nobody warned them before now. If you are looking around for more background information, I would like to summarize a series of arguments and analyses that have led me to the view that peak oil is most likely occurring about now, give or take a year or two. My personal coffee-spitting incident occurred about a year ago, and this is some of what I've figured out in the meantime.
He went on to offer supporting explanations like no spare capacity in
Then last November we got this press release from the OPEC saying it had decided to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day. That after cutting production one month earlier in October by 1.2 million barrels per day to, “halt a 10-week, 25 percent price decline.” - a decline that had seen oil prices crash… to about $60 per barrel.
Now we get this coming from Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi,
"Our feeling now is that with the thrust and push for conservation, for efficiency of use, for use of alternative-sources energy, we probably need not go beyond 12.5'' million barrels a day, the capacity projected for the end of 2009, Naimi said."
Hooray! In two years the world will have conserved its way into voluntary energy descent! Seriously, this country makes billions of dollars a year and has developed a completely unsustainable society on that income, and now they're telling us that they think oil will just be less necessary in 2 years and therefore they probably won’t need to raise their production level? Is anybody believing this?
The question is, are we really listening?